January 24, 2008

National Home Sales Stats for December Reported This Morning

Existing Home Sales for December fail to add much clarity for those in search of an economic crystal ball

Many local areas continue to have healthy or improving local housing markets.

–	Richard Gaylord President, National Association of Realtors®

The monthly announcement of national and regional statistics on home sales for the prior month caught less attention today in light of the world-wide stock market drop in the last week. But KNAU still called it “a terrible decline.” Well, to quote another program on KNAU, “let’s do the numbers:”

According to the statistics compiled and released by the National Association of Realtors^®, existing-home sales – including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops (the latter is not a Flagstaff real estate option) – slipped 2.2 percent to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 4.89 million units in December from a pace of 5.00 million in November. Sales were 22.0 percent below the 6.27 million-unit level in December 2006.

For all of 2007, there were 5,652,000 existing-home sales, the fifth highest year on record; however, the total was 12.8 percent below the 6,478,000 transactions recorded in 2006. In my annual analysis of the Flagstaff real estate market, we found that the so-called “terrible decline” has not taken median home prices below the median prices of 2005 in Flagstaff overall or for any market segment (except in the condominium market, where we’re not comparing apples to apples because of the entry of new products).

Indicating that the bottom of this national downturn may be approaching, or past, total housing inventory fell 7.4 percent at the end of December to 3.91 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 9.6-month supply nationally at the current sales pace, down from a 10.1-month supply in November. This could be less enthusiastic sellers withdrawing their homes in a tough market, or it could be a one-month blip because sellers did not want the stress of seller their homes during the holidays. We’ll see next month.

NAR President Richard Gaylord, a broker with RE/MAX Real Estate Specialists in Long Beach, Calif., said current housing conditions vary widely with local markets. “Many local areas continue to have healthy or improving local housing markets,” he said. “For example, we saw higher home sales last month in diverse areas such as San Antonio; Syracuse; Springfield, Ill.; and Sarasota, Fla. If you’re thinking about getting into the market as a buyer or a seller, consult a Realtor^® to learn about conditions in your area – they may be considerably different from the composite national picture.”

For information on the 2007 market in Flagstaff download an Adobe Acrobat version of our Annual Flagstaff Real Estate Market Report. For the latest – my mid-January Flagstaff real estate market report, here is the blog post: Flagstaff Real Estate -- Mid-January Market Update.

For your own personal analysis of the current market in the Flagstaff neighborhoods where you intend to buy or sell, hire Team Heitland at RE/MAX Peak Properties as the agents to represent you in this most important transaction of your lifetime.


	Today's National Association of Realtors® Press Release
	Existing-home sales declined in December following several months of stable activity, with total sales in 2007 at the fifth highest on record
	http://www.realtor.org/press_room/news_releases/2008/ehs_jan08_existing_home_sales_down.html

	Existing Home Sales and Homes for Sale Decline in December
	Wall Street Journal Report on the Home Sales News
	http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120118015625613301.html?mod=hps_us_whats_news