212035 Resource 178438 178984 178984 1220049828406 1220049828406 Controlled Home Loan Rates Remain Strong This Week

Next Friday's Employment Number May Be A Market Mover

Market Comment Mortgage bond prices rose last week pushing mortgage interest rates lower.  The US dollar continued to strengthen.  Oil remained volatile and initially improved from the strengthened dollar.  Unfortunately oil prices pushed higher the end of the week, which reignited inflation fears as Gustav threatened the <place>Gulf of Mexico</place>.  Fears of refinery disruptions increased.For the week, interest rates on government and conventional loans fell by about 1/2 of a discount point. The employment report Friday will be the most important event this week.  The bond market is closed Monday in honor of Labor Day.  The shortened trading week may lead to market volatility when trading resumes Tuesday following the extended holiday weekend. Employment The employment report provides an abundance of information for almost every sector of the economy. Not only does the employment report give basic employment payroll statistics for the major working sectors, it also provides the average hourly earnings and the average workweek.  Using this information provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) of the U.S. Department of Labor, economists estimate many other economic indicators such as industrial production, personal income, housing starts, and GDP monthly revisions. Since there is little data for economists to base their estimates on, the margin of error for the estimates tends to be high. As a result, the employment report can cause substantial market movements. The BLS compiles data from two unrelated surveys that they conduct, the household survey and the establishment survey, in order to complete the employment report.  This explains why sometimes there is an unexpected divergence between the unemployment rate and payrolls figures each month. Analysts currently debate the Fed’s next move.  While the Fed’s primary focus is curtailing inflation, the current dilemma is doing so without damaging the already weakened economy.  This week’s employment data will provide valuable insight into factors the Federal Open Market Committee will use to make future rate decisions.<table class="MsoNormalTable" style="MARGIN: auto auto auto 0.05in; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse; mso-table-layout-alt: fixed; mso-padding-alt: 0in .05in 0in .05in" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0"><tbody><tr style="HEIGHT: 37.35pt; mso-yfti-irow: 0"><td style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; PADDING-RIGHT: 0.05in; BORDER-TOP: black 1pt solid; PADDING-LEFT: 0.05in; BACKGROUND: white; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: black 1pt solid; WIDTH: 538.85pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 37.35pt; mso-shading: white; mso-pattern: solid white" width="898" colspan="4">Looking Ahead</td></tr><tr style="HEIGHT: 37.35pt; mso-yfti-irow: 1"><td style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; PADDING-RIGHT: 0.05in; BORDER-TOP: black 1pt solid; PADDING-LEFT: 0.05in; BACKGROUND: white; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: black 1pt solid; WIDTH: 82.85pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 37.35pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .25pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid black 1.0pt; mso-shading: white; mso-pattern: solid white" width="138">EconomicIndicator</td><td style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; PADDING-RIGHT: 0.05in; BORDER-TOP: black 1pt solid; PADDING-LEFT: 0.05in; BACKGROUND: white; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: black 1pt solid; WIDTH: 113.25pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 37.35pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .25pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .25pt; mso-shading: white; mso-pattern: solid white" width="189">ReleaseDate and Time</td><td style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; PADDING-RIGHT: 0.05in; BORDER-TOP: black 1pt solid; PADDING-LEFT: 0.05in; BACKGROUND: white; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: black 1pt solid; WIDTH: 85.5pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 37.35pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .25pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .25pt; mso-shading: white; mso-pattern: solid white" width="143">ConsensusEstimate</td><td style="BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 0.05in; BORDER-TOP: black 1pt solid; PADDING-LEFT: 0.05in; BACKGROUND: white; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: black 1pt solid; WIDTH: 257.25pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 37.35pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .25pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .25pt; mso-shading: white; mso-pattern: solid white; mso-border-right-alt: solid black 1.0pt" valign="top" width="429"> Analysis</td></tr><tr style="HEIGHT: 41.75pt; mso-yfti-irow: 2"><td style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; PADDING-RIGHT: 0.05in; BORDER-TOP: black 1pt solid; PADDING-LEFT: 0.05in; BACKGROUND: white; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: black 1pt solid; WIDTH: 82.85pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 41.75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .25pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid black 1.0pt; mso-shading: white; mso-pattern: solid white" width="138">Construction Spending</td><td style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; PADDING-RIGHT: 0.05in; BORDER-TOP: black 1pt solid; PADDING-LEFT: 0.05in; BACKGROUND: white; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: black 1pt solid; WIDTH: 113.25pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 41.75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .25pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .25pt; mso-shading: white; mso-pattern: solid white" width="189">Tuesday, Sept. 2,10:00 am ET</td><td style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; PADDING-RIGHT: 0.05in; BORDER-TOP: black 1pt solid; PADDING-LEFT: 0.05in; BACKGROUND: white; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: black 1pt solid; WIDTH: 85.5pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 41.75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .25pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .25pt; mso-shading: white; mso-pattern: solid white" width="143">Down 0.4%</td><td style="BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 0.05in; BORDER-TOP: black 1pt solid; PADDING-LEFT: 0.05in; BACKGROUND: white; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: black 1pt solid; WIDTH: 257.25pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 41.75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .25pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .25pt; mso-shading: white; mso-pattern: solid white; mso-border-right-alt: solid black 1.0pt" width="429">Low importance.  An indication of economic strength.  A significant decrease may lead to lower rates.</td></tr><tr style="HEIGHT: 41.75pt; mso-yfti-irow: 3"><td style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; PADDING-RIGHT: 0.05in; BORDER-TOP: black 1pt solid; PADDING-LEFT: 0.05in; BACKGROUND: white; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: black 1pt solid; WIDTH: 82.85pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 41.75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .25pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid black 1.0pt; mso-shading: white; mso-pattern: solid white" width="138">ISM Index</td><td style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; PADDING-RIGHT: 0.05in; BORDER-TOP: black 1pt solid; PADDING-LEFT: 0.05in; BACKGROUND: white; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: black 1pt solid; WIDTH: 113.25pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 41.75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .25pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .25pt; mso-shading: white; mso-pattern: solid white" width="189">Tuesday, Sept. 2,10:00 am ET</td><td style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; PADDING-RIGHT: 0.05in; BORDER-TOP: black 1pt solid; PADDING-LEFT: 0.05in; BACKGROUND: white; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: black 1pt solid; WIDTH: 85.5pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 41.75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .25pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .25pt; mso-shading: white; mso-pattern: solid white" width="143">49.5</td><td style="BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 0.05in; BORDER-TOP: black 1pt solid; PADDING-LEFT: 0.05in; BACKGROUND: white; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: black 1pt solid; WIDTH: 257.25pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 41.75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .25pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .25pt; mso-shading: white; mso-pattern: solid white; mso-border-right-alt: solid black 1.0pt" width="429">Important.  A measure of manufacturer sentiment.  A large decline may lead to lower mortgage rates.</td></tr><tr style="HEIGHT: 41.75pt; mso-yfti-irow: 4"><td style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; PADDING-RIGHT: 0.05in; BORDER-TOP: black 1pt solid; PADDING-LEFT: 0.05in; BACKGROUND: white; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: black 1pt solid; WIDTH: 82.85pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 41.75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .25pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid black 1.0pt; mso-shading: white; mso-pattern: solid white" width="138">ADP Employment</td><td style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; PADDING-RIGHT: 0.05in; BORDER-TOP: black 1pt solid; PADDING-LEFT: 0.05in; BACKGROUND: white; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: black 1pt solid; WIDTH: 113.25pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 41.75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .25pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .25pt; mso-shading: white; mso-pattern: solid white" width="189">Wednesday, Sept. 3,<time hour="8" minute="30">8:30 am</time>, et</td><td style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; PADDING-RIGHT: 0.05in; BORDER-TOP: black 1pt solid; PADDING-LEFT: 0.05in; BACKGROUND: white; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: black 1pt solid; WIDTH: 85.5pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 41.75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .25pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .25pt; mso-shading: white; mso-pattern: solid white" width="143">Down 19k</td><td style="BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 0.05in; BORDER-TOP: black 1pt solid; PADDING-LEFT: 0.05in; BACKGROUND: white; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: black 1pt solid; WIDTH: 257.25pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 41.75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .25pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .25pt; mso-shading: white; mso-pattern: solid white; mso-border-right-alt: solid black 1.0pt" width="429">Moderately important.  A large decrease in payrolls may bring lower rates.</td></tr><tr style="HEIGHT: 41.75pt; mso-yfti-irow: 5"><td style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; PADDING-RIGHT: 0.05in; BORDER-TOP: black 1pt solid; PADDING-LEFT: 0.05in; BACKGROUND: white; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: black 1pt solid; WIDTH: 82.85pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 41.75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .25pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid black 1.0pt; mso-shading: white; mso-pattern: solid white" width="138">Factory Orders</td><td style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; PADDING-RIGHT: 0.05in; BORDER-TOP: black 1pt solid; PADDING-LEFT: 0.05in; BACKGROUND: white; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: black 1pt solid; WIDTH: 113.25pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 41.75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .25pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .25pt; mso-shading: white; mso-pattern: solid white" width="189">Wednesday, Sept. 3,10:00 am, et</td><td style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; PADDING-RIGHT: 0.05in; BORDER-TOP: black 1pt solid; PADDING-LEFT: 0.05in; BACKGROUND: white; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: black 1pt solid; WIDTH: 85.5pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 41.75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .25pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .25pt; mso-shading: white; mso-pattern: solid white" width="143">Up 0.4%</td><td style="BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 0.05in; BORDER-TOP: black 1pt solid; PADDING-LEFT: 0.05in; BACKGROUND: white; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: black 1pt solid; WIDTH: 257.25pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 41.75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .25pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .25pt; mso-shading: white; mso-pattern: solid white; mso-border-right-alt: solid black 1.0pt" width="429">Important.  A measure of manufacturing sector strength.  Weakness may lead to lower rates.</td></tr><tr style="HEIGHT: 46.95pt; mso-yfti-irow: 6"><td style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; PADDING-RIGHT: 0.05in; BORDER-TOP: black 1pt solid; PADDING-LEFT: 0.05in; BACKGROUND: white; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: black 1pt solid; WIDTH: 82.85pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 46.95pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .25pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid black 1.0pt; mso-shading: white; mso-pattern: solid white" width="138">Fed “Beige Book”</td><td style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; PADDING-RIGHT: 0.05in; BORDER-TOP: black 1pt solid; PADDING-LEFT: 0.05in; BACKGROUND: white; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: black 1pt solid; WIDTH: 113.25pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 46.95pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .25pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .25pt; mso-shading: white; mso-pattern: solid white" width="189">Wednesday, Sept. 3, <time hour="14" minute="0">2:00 pm</time>, et</td><td style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; PADDING-RIGHT: 0.05in; BORDER-TOP: black 1pt solid; PADDING-LEFT: 0.05in; BACKGROUND: white; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: black 1pt solid; WIDTH: 85.5pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 46.95pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .25pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .25pt; mso-shading: white; mso-pattern: solid white" width="143">None</td><td style="BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 0.05in; BORDER-TOP: black 1pt solid; PADDING-LEFT: 0.05in; BACKGROUND: white; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: black 1pt solid; WIDTH: 257.25pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 46.95pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .25pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .25pt; mso-shading: white; mso-pattern: solid white; mso-border-right-alt: solid black 1.0pt" width="429">Important.  This Fed report details current economic conditions across the <country-region><place>US</place></country-region>.  Signs of weakness may lead to lower rates.</td></tr><tr style="HEIGHT: 41.75pt; mso-yfti-irow: 7"><td style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; PADDING-RIGHT: 0.05in; BORDER-TOP: black 1pt solid; PADDING-LEFT: 0.05in; BACKGROUND: white; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: black 1pt solid; WIDTH: 82.85pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 41.75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .25pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid black 1.0pt; mso-shading: white; mso-pattern: solid white" width="138">Revised Q2 Productivity</td><td style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; PADDING-RIGHT: 0.05in; BORDER-TOP: black 1pt solid; PADDING-LEFT: 0.05in; BACKGROUND: white; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: black 1pt solid; WIDTH: 113.25pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 41.75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .25pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .25pt; mso-shading: white; mso-pattern: solid white" width="189">Thursday, Sept. 4,<time hour="8" minute="30">8:30 am</time>, et</td><td style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; PADDING-RIGHT: 0.05in; BORDER-TOP: black 1pt solid; PADDING-LEFT: 0.05in; BACKGROUND: white; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: black 1pt solid; WIDTH: 85.5pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 41.75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .25pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .25pt; mso-shading: white; mso-pattern: solid white" width="143">Up 2.9%</td><td style="BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 0.05in; BORDER-TOP: black 1pt solid; PADDING-LEFT: 0.05in; BACKGROUND: white; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: black 1pt solid; WIDTH: 257.25pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 41.75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .25pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .25pt; mso-shading: white; mso-pattern: solid white; mso-border-right-alt: solid black 1.0pt" width="429">Important.  A measure of output per hour.  Improvement may lead to lower mortgage rates.</td></tr><tr style="HEIGHT: 41.75pt; mso-yfti-irow: 8; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes"><td style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; PADDING-RIGHT: 0.05in; BORDER-TOP: black 1pt solid; PADDING-LEFT: 0.05in; BACKGROUND: white; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: black 1pt solid; WIDTH: 82.85pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 41.75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .25pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid black 1.0pt; mso-shading: white; mso-pattern: solid white; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid black .25pt" width="138">Employment</td><td style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; PADDING-RIGHT: 0.05in; BORDER-TOP: black 1pt solid; PADDING-LEFT: 0.05in; BACKGROUND: white; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: black 1pt solid; WIDTH: 113.25pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 41.75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .25pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .25pt; mso-shading: white; mso-pattern: solid white; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid black .25pt" width="189">Friday, Sept. 5,<time hour="8" minute="30">8:30 am</time>, et</td><td style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; PADDING-RIGHT: 0.05in; BORDER-TOP: black 1pt solid; PADDING-LEFT: 0.05in; BACKGROUND: white; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: black 1pt solid; WIDTH: 85.5pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 41.75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .25pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .25pt; mso-shading: white; mso-pattern: solid white; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid black .25pt" width="143">Unemp. @ 5.7%,Payrolls -70k</td><td style="BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 0.05in; BORDER-TOP: black 1pt solid; PADDING-LEFT: 0.05in; BACKGROUND: white; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: black 1pt solid; WIDTH: 257.25pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 41.75pt; mso-shading: white; mso-pattern: solid white; mso-border-right-alt: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .25pt" width="429">Very important.  An increase in unemployment or a larger decrease in payrolls may bring lower rates.</td></tr></tbody></table>  10 application/xml false Mozilla/4.0 (compatible; MSIE 7.0; Windows NT 5.1; .NET CLR 1.1.4322; .NET CLR 2.0.50727) 127.0.0.1 127.0.0.1 lfontanini 63.169.40.222 false true false false true 178975 false false true false false false true 178438 blog blogsite/BestFlagstaffHomes/web