NAR Press Release and Link to October home sales statistics

190995 Resource 178435 178982 178982 1196310878593 1196370474384 Controlled Home Sales Reports in Today’s News

National Association of Realtors® Existing Home Sales for October Released Today

Today much of the news media went for the sexy headline rather than insight into new figures released on results of October sales of existing homes.  The graph line for total number of residential resale transactions is down dramatically from 2005 (see chart). However, to report, as the Wall Street Journal did this morning, that <a title="Wall Street Journal Article on NAR data for October" href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119625591612606522.html?mod=hps_us_whats_news" target="_blank">“Existing-home sales fell an eighth consecutive month during October, a victim of the credit crunch,”</a> misses a lot that matters. A more accurate summary of the housing news is: <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119625591612606522.html?mod=hps_us_whats_news">“Single-family existing-home sales were stable in October while the condo sector was down,”</a> as the National Association of Realtors® introduced its report, upon which the Journal based its more sensational lead. Here are the facts that matter to those concerned about the direction of the Flagstaff real estate market:<ul><li>Total sales of existing homes (not new homes) for October -- including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – eased by 1.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.97 million units from 5.03 million units in September, and are 20.7 % below the 6.27 million-unit pace set in September 2006.</li><li> The national median existing-home price (including all existing home types) was $207,800 in October 2007, which is down 5.1% from October 2006 when the median was $218,900. NAR attributes the price decline to unavailability of jumbo loans that slowed sales in high-price markets, and that dragged down the national median.</li></ul>The numbers reported are a national aggregate and can be quite misleading with respect to local market conditions. Broadly speaking, home prices in most areas are up modestly or fairly stable, as reported in NAR’s release last week of home sale information for the 3d Quarter of 2007. Today’s release shows that some regions have price gains, but not yet in the West.  In Flagstaff, we’re in the midst of the downward trend because the Flagstaff market was one of the later areas to start to fall. These statements are the subjects of my recent blog posts:<blockquote dir="ltr" style="MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">November 26: <a title="Nov. 26 Post" href="item/190811" target="_blank">National Real Estate Report Shows Upswing in Most Metropolitan Markets Giving Hints About Flagstaff's Market</a>October 10: <a title="3d Quarter Home Sales Data for Flagstaff AZ" href="item/185992" target="_blank">The Flagstaff Residential Real Estate Market Drifted Lower in the 3d Quarter</a></blockquote>As for the media’s continued drum-beat about the “credit crunch” and its doom-and-gloom implications for the housing market, here’s what NAR’s chief economist had to say today:<blockquote dir="ltr" style="MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px"> <a href="http://www.realtor.org/press_room/news_releases/2007/ehs_oct07_mixed_results.html"> “[M]ortgage problems were peaking back in August when many of the sales closed in October were being negotiated.  We continue to see the biggest impact in high-cost markets that rely on jumbo loans. Mortgage availability has improved as evidenced by much lower mortgage interest rates and a sharp jump in FHA endorsements for home purchases. </a><a href="http://www.realtor.org/press_room/news_releases/2007/ehs_oct07_mixed_results.html">  “A trend away from subprime mortgages to FHA loans, which often carry much lower interest rates, is a positive development for consumers and the housing market going forward.  Still, it will take some time for the change to yield a measurably higher closed sales volume in the aftermath of the subprime collapse.  In the near term, we expect home sales to remain fairly stable.”</a></blockquote> So, <a title="Indications Are This May Be the Best Time to Buy" href="blog/178438" target="_blank">as our mortgage blogging partner said today</a>, now is a good time for buyers to get qualified and get moving on their home purchases. When expectations that “home sales will remain fairly stable” appear in a falling market, it means that the trough is about to be reached and prices will begin to climb. Waiting may cost you money, not only if home loan rates go up, as Liz warned today, but because actual home sales prices may start to climb. <a title="October 2007 and earlier data in Excel format" href="http://www.realtor.org/research.nsf/Files/EHSreport.XLS/$file/EHSreport.xls" target="_blank">Click here to read the National Association of Realtors® October existing home sales data by region as well as national aggregates, with comparisons to prior years.</a> 9 application/xml false Home sales data for October 2007 Media coverage of home sales data mortgage market impact on home sales National Association of Realtors data recent Flagstaff home sales reports NAR Press Release and Link to October home sales statistics Mixed Results For October Existing-Home Sales; Mortgages Improving http://www.realtor.org/press_room/news_releases/2007/ehs_oct07_mixed_results.html Mozilla/4.0 (compatible; MSIE 7.0; Windows NT 5.1; .NET CLR 1.1.4322; .NET CLR 2.0.50727) 127.0.0.1 127.0.0.1 aheitland 75.160.24.218 false true false false true 178975 false false true false false false true 178435 blog blogsite/BestFlagstaffHomes/web