The drop in existing-home sales for November is evidence that serious housing market problems have been aggravated by the crashing economy, according to the National Association of Realtors®. “The quickly deteriorating conditions in the job market, stock market, and consumer confidence in October and November have knocked down home sales to another level. We hope the home sales impact from the stock market crash turns out to be short-lived, as was the case in 1987 and 2001,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist.
Existing-home sales – including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – fell 8.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.49 million units in November from a downwardly revised level of 4.91 million in October, and are 10.6 percent below the 5.02 million-unit pace in November 2007.
Total housing inventory at the end of November rose 0.1 percent to 4.20 million existing homes available for sale, which represents an 11.2-month supply at the current sales pace, up from a 10.3-month supply in October. Despite an overall softening in sales, there has been a solid trend of rising activity in California, Nevada, Arizona, and Florida markets. “Sales are rising only in areas with large numbers of distressed properties as bargain hunters take advantage of discounted home prices,” Yun said. So far, Flagstaff has not become a place for bargain hunters, and our inventory of Flagstaff homes for sale rose to alarmingly-high levels in November has sellers held their prices. See my post on Flagstaff home sales in November.
The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $181,300 in November, down 13.2 percent from November 2007 when the median was $208,800. According to NAR, there is a significant downward distortion in the current price from a large number of distress sales at discounted prices. Of course, that is what is making the home sales!
Single-family home sales fell 8.0 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.02 million in November from a level of 4.37 million in October, and are 8.8 percent below a 4.41 million-unit pace a year ago. The median existing single-family home price was $180,800 in November, down 12.8 percent from November 2007.
Existing condominium and co-op sales dropped 13.0 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 470,000 units in November from 540,000 in October, and are 23.1 percent below the 611,000-unit pace in November 2007. The median existing condo price was $185,400 in November, down 15.5 percent from a year ago. Because there is a concentration of condos in high-cost metropolitan areas, the national median condo price can be higher than the median single-family price. In any given city, condos typically cost less than single-family homes. This is certainly true with Flagstaff homes.
Regionally, the Western area of the U.S. was the only area with higher sales activity from one year ago. Existing-home sales in the West declined 4.3 percent to an annual rate of 1.12 million in November but are 17.9 percent higher than November 2007. The median price in the West was $242,500, down 25.5 percent from a year ago. The price drop in the West was also the largest of any region. |
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