Those dang reporters are at it again! |
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The Daily Sun, Flagstaff’s newspaper, does a good job keeping us informed about many things in and around Flagstaff, but they too often treat the Flagstaff real estate market as though it were an on-going sporting event. The catch is, they are reporting last month's scores. Friday’s front page article was a good example. The article was inspired by Thursday’s National Association of Realtors’ press release announcing December national real estate market numbers. I gave you my perspective on the national numbers on Thursday: Existing Home Sales for December fail to add much clarity for those in search of an economic crystal ball. Rolling Flagstaff numbers into the national press release, the Daily Sun called the decline in number of home sales from December 2006 to December 2007 a “plunge” and quoted one real estate agent saying that that Flagstaff homes sales were in “hibernation” during December. But let’s look at January. As of Friday, with six days to go in the month, there were 762 Flagstaff homes (of all types) for sale, according to the Northern Arizona Association of Realtors® Multiple-Listing-Service, which may not include all sales in the market. As of yesterday, 45 Flagstaff homes have sold and closed with another 95 under contract to sell. By anyone’s definition, that’s not “hibernation.” Statistically, January, overall, is headed toward ending as a “balanced” market – six months supply of available homes – and, perhaps, heading out of buyers’ market territory. Many would-be buyers in Flagstaff are finding that, when they start to look, what they read in the papers about the market is misleading. Unlike a few years ago, there are at least some homes for buyers to choose from, but the selection is not vast, unlimited or necessarily pretty. Buyers who find a really great home have been disappointed that while they are mulling it over, another buyer bought it. What? Two buyers for the same house?!? The reporter for the Sun called to ask me what I thought of the NAR press release and where I thought the market was headed in 2008. My answer: too early to tell, too much economic volatility in sectors other than housing, or, in other words, Existing Home Sales for December fail to add much clarity for those in search of an economic crystal ball. Buyers who need a Flagstaff home in the foreseeable future should remember that the real estate market is like the stock market: Until the prices start heading back up, we don’t know that we’ve passed the bottom of the curve. | 
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