On Friday evening, the Flagstaff Symphony presents Showcasing the FSO.  Soloists: bad-to-the-bone trombonist David Vining, and Louise Scott, violin; Mary Beadell DiBartolo, cello; Rebecca Kemper Scarnati, oboe; and Kent Moore, bassoon.  Selections include Beethoven’s Overture to Egmont in F Minor, Op. 84; Haydn’s Sinfonia concertante for Violin, Cello, Oboe, and Bassoon in B-flat Major, Hob. 1:105; Tomasi’s Concerto for Trombone; and Beethoven’s Symphony No. 8 in F Major, Op. 93.  NAU’s Ardrey Auditorium, 7:30 p.m.  Tickets.

See JesterComedy standup comedian Bob Kubota on Friday evening at The Orpheum, in downtown Flagstaff at 9 p.m.  Performing since 1987, Kubota’s penchant for dry wit, lighthearted sarcasm and deciphering life’s ironies has led him to shows across the U.S.

Theatrikos Theatre Company presents Cabaret, beginning Friday and Saturday, 8 p.m., and Sunday at 2 p.m.  The play brings to life the dark, sexually charged decadence of 1930s Berlin. It sizzles and provokes with classics such as Wilkommen, Money, and of course, Cabaret.  Fridays and Saturdays through February 18^th.  Doris Harper White Playhouse.  Tickets.

Start Your Own Business with the help of Coconino County Community Services with classes starting on Saturday.  Classes are classroom-based, online or as independent study.  (Classroom training runs 8 weeks in Flagstaff.)  Coconino County Building, 2625 N. King St.

NAU Women’s Basketball vs. Sacramento State, Saturday, 6:35 p.m., NAU’s Rolle Activity Center.

On Saturday, join the excitement at the Northern Arizona Wedding Expo, 10 a.m. – 3 p.m. at the Radisson Woodlands Hotel.  Caterers, photographers, reception venues, DJs and more.  Make all your wedding plans in one place.

Other entertainment picks:  See local singer-songwriter Matt Bingham on Friday evening at Charly’s Pub & Grill at the Hotel Weatherford, 9 p.m.  See up-and-coming, Abilene-based country star Aaron Watson on Saturday evening at the iconic Route 66 Museum Club. 9:30 p.m.

Come live in Flagstaff! It's so much fun!

Pending sales of existing homes stayed ahead of year-ago levels, according to the National Association of Realtors®’ report on December statistics. The Pending Home Sales Index declined 3.5% to in December compared with November,  but is 5.6% above December 2010. The data reflect contracts to buy homes, but not closings.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the trend line remains positive. “Even with a modest decline, the preceding two months of contract activity are the highest in the past four years outside of the homebuyer tax credit period,” he said. “Contract failures remain an issue, reported by one-third of Realtors^® over the past few months, but home buyers are not giving up.”

Yun said some buyers successfully complete the sale after a contract delay, while others stay in the market after a contract failure and make another offer. “Housing affordability conditions are too good to pass up,” he said.

By region the Realtors^® Pending Home Sales Index declined in the Northeast by 3.1% to 74.7 in December and is 0.8% below a year ago. In the Midwest the PHSI rose 4.0% to 95.3 and is 13.3% higher than December 2010. Pending home sales in the South slipped 2.6% to an index of 101.1 in December but are 4.9% above a year ago. In the West the index fell 11.0% in December to 107.9 but is 3.7% higher than December 2010.

When you’re ready to take advantage of the low prices and low interest rates by buying a Flagstaff home, give me a call: 928-714-0001, or start learning about Flagstaff real estate on my website!

The devil is in the details on these things, so we won't know for a while who will be helped and who will be passed over. Each one of the programs so far has provided a small amount of incremental relief. There are so many different mortgages and so many different financial difficulities being experienced by homeowners (unemployment, loss of equity, adjusted rates, divorce) that no one-size-fits-all solution can be proposed.

Not surprisingly, this may never come to be because it requires Congressional approval. 

Thought for the day:

"The tough decisions won’t go away on their own, and like compound interest, the size of our problems will only grow over time. Ultimately, we’re only doing ourselves a favor by shortening the space between when we know we made a mistake and when we finally decide to do something about it." -- Carl Richards.

On thing I've learned in this tough real estate market of the last five years is that making a pricing mistake at the outset of listing a home can kill the sale. But worse than the initial mistake is failing to correct it in a timely manner.

I've got a pricing strategy to sell Flagstaff homes, not simply to list them. When you're ready to sell your Flagstaff home, give me call so we can meet and make a plan. 928-714-0001.

Ann Heitland at RE/MAX Peak Properties.

The 1.8 million-acre Coconino National Forest surrounding Flagstaff is one of the most diverse national forests in the country, with landscapes ranging from pine forests to the famous red rocks of Sedona to alpine tundra.  Its beauty and diverse recreation opportunities are a part of why it’s so wonderful to live in Flagstaff.

The Coconino National Forest has the largest stand of ponderosa pine in the world.  Hiking, sightseeing, wildlife watching, boating, fishing, camping, horseback riding and skiing are the predominant recreation activities enjoyed in this land of mountains, forests, prairies and lava flows.

Large herds of elk roam the forests and edgelands. Bald eagles and ospreys live and hunt around the lakes. Pronghorn antelope graze the prairies.

Features of the Coconino National Forest:

• Elevation: 2,600' to 12,633' (Flagstaff itself is at about 7000’)

• Pine-covered plateau cut by deep canyons and bordered on the south by the spectacular Mogollon Rim, a 1,000-foot cliff running for miles across central Arizona.

• San Francisco Peaks, including Humphreys Peak (12,633').

• Trout fishing in several lakes and streams.

• All or portions of ten wilderness areas.

• Boating on Lake Mary

• Hunting for elk, deer, antelope, and turkey.

• Scenic drives include: Around the Peaks, Lake Mary-Long Valley Road, Oak Creek Canyon and the Mogollon Rim Road.

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When you’re ready to buy a home in Flagstaff a try, start here: BestFlagstaffHomes.com.

An extension of forbearance programs by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac gives short-term aid to unemployed homeowners, but housing counselors warn of drawbacks.

Read the full article at: NY Times.

The latest monthly data shows total existing-home sales rose 5.0% from November to December based on seasonally adjusted numbers, and are 3.6% higher than the 4.45 million-unit level in December 2010. The estimates are based on completed transactions from multiple listing services that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops. December was the third month in a row showing rising sales volume.

For all of 2011, existing-home sales rose 1.7% to 4.26 million from 4.19 million in 2010. The first six months of the year were very slow.

Total housing inventory at the end of December dropped 9.2% to 2.38 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 6.2-month supply at the current sales pace, down from a 7.2-month supply in November. Available inventory has trended down since setting a record of 4.04 million in July 2007, and is at the lowest level since March 2005 when there were 2.30 million homes on the market.

“The inventory supply suggests many markets will see prices stabilize or grow moderately in the near future,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors.^® Indeed, we are beginning to see that in some markets around the country, including the market for Flagstaff’s lower-priced homes. Those Flagstaff home prices, by the way, are still substantially above the national median price of $164,500. Flagstaff’s median sold home price in December was $249,750.

Housing analysts reacted to the release of NAR numbers with cautious optimism about the coming months. Analysts noted that unseasonably warm weather may have helped boost sales in December, but that a strengthening job market and record low mortgage rates should help home sales in coming months. The distressed home component of sales will continue to slow recovery.

Don't miss out on the Flagstaff homes market:

To search the Flagstaff MLS, click here!

Here's a link to a video about mortgage modification -- an option if you're underwater on your mortgage. Modification may not be the best option. You may qualify for a refinance. If you don't want to keep the home, a short sale may be in order.

Start by talking with a good local Flagstaff lender.

If it's time to sell, give me a call: Ann Heitland at RE/MAX Peak Properties.

On Saturday evening in Flagstaff, the Coconino Center for the Arts hosts the opening reception for it’s 10 x 10 Show – 100 artists – 10” x 10” works of art – 100 years of Arizona history.  It’s an examination of what happens when 100 artists each create a small work of art exactly the same size.  7 – 9 p.m.

The Flagstaff Light Opera Company continues its production of the new musical play, All the More to Love, on Friday at 7:30 p.m., and Saturday at 2 p.m. and 7:30 p.m.  Based on a real-life shop for plus-size women (and for guys who like to wear their clothes) with music ranging in style from country to R&B and opera, it's a must-see for everyone who's ever fought the battle of the bulge or broken a New Year's resolution.   Coconino High School Auditorium. Continues next weekend on January 20 & 21.

On Friday evening, the Flagstaff Folk Project presents Vincent Z, singing and playing traditional melodies and rhythms from around the world – truly a sampling of World Music – samba, beguine, rumba, gypsy swing, soukous, and more..   All ages.  Beacon Unitarian Universalist Church (510 N. Leroux), 7 – 9 p.m.

On Saturday afternoon the CocoNuts Robotics Team at Coconino High School hosts the High Altitude Robotics Extravaganza.  23 teams from four states compete in robotics challenges with robots they have designed and built, Qualification round for the first world championship in St. Louis in April.  Coconino High, 10:30 a.m. – 5 p.m.

NAU Women’s Basketball vs. Idaho State, Saturday, 3:05 p.m., NAU’s Rolle Activity Center.

It’s Great Gatsby Night on Saturday at Uptown Billiards. Celebrate with a 1920s/Speak Easy style costume party and contest, DJ’d prohibition era music throughout the evening, the (in)Famous Uptown Billiards Burlesque show, costume party with trophies for the Most Gatsby, Best Costume, and Best “Eyes of Eckleburg.” 8 p.m.

Also at the Coconino Center on Saturday night, the Grand Canyon Guitar Society presents Swedish guitarist Johannes Mollers, winner of the Guitar Foundation of America’s Concert Artist Competition, now on a 50-concert world tour.  Enjoy his charismatic and soulful performance. 8 – 10 p.m.  Tickets

On Sunday, the Stories to Life Series continues at the Coconino Center for the Arts, bringing together words and music, taking the audience on a journey of Arizona history. Travel the cowboy trail and be a part of 100 years of Arizona tales, featuring Tony Norris and Warren Miller.  Stories to Life provides a setting where classic tales, poems and literature come to life through the talents of spoken word actors amidst the backdrop of live music from the Flagstaff Symphony Orchestra. 4 p.m.

Other entertainment picks:  Deadheads unite on Saturday night as the Orpheum Theater presents Grateful Dead Tribute Band, Xtra Ticket, 9 p.m.  A Southern Rock band that’s been setting the Dallas/Ft. Worth area on fire, the Josh Davis Band, plays The Museum Club, Friday and Saturday, p.m.

Flagstaff weather:  Sunny on Friday with a slight chance of showers for the duration of the weekend.  Daytime highs near 50 with overnight lows near 30.

When you're ready to join us living in Flagstaff, start here for Flagstaff real estate advice.

As I wrote yesterday, some folks are predicting 2012 will be the year of the comeback in Flagstaff housing, and part of that comeback has to be stimulated by a boom in the Phoenix area housing market. News from Phoenix via the Associated Press and the Arizona Daily Sun this morning throws some cold water on those predictions.

AP reports and my thoughts about it:

"The report from the W. P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University says the metro area recorded 106,850 transactions in the existing-home market during 2011. That's 125 fewer transactions than there was in 2010." 2011 was 2010 all over again and 2012 is going to be much the same.

"The number of foreclosures dropped from 41,625 in 2010 to 35,855 last year." While it might seem like a good sign that foreclosures were down, it's not. They are merely delayed by paperwork issues, poor staffing and the desire of banks to avoid crushing the market with inventory that would further push down prices.

"The median price for a single-family home resold in Phoenix was $125,000 last year. That's down from $138,000 in 2010 and $260,000 in 2007." Take comfort in the fact that Flagstaff's median price hasn't been hit that hard. I'll publish some numbers in the next few days which show how well off we are compared with the homeowners in Phoenix.

Bottom line, the researchers at ASU say "it will take years to fully reverse the drop from the peak." How many years is the big unknown. What does seem clear is that we are at or very close to the bottom and now is a great time to lock in an interest rate on a home for living in Flagstaff or a long-term investment.

Get started with Flagstaff real estate at my website!

Surprisingly, this week I’m hearing talk of a quick housing recovery in Flagstaff.  The first place I heard it, yesterday, was from a mortgage techie out of Texas with jet lag. Well, to be honest, I'd heard something like it at a sales meeting in the morning, where 2012 was described as "The Year of the Comeback," but I discounted that as a pep talk. The next guy I heard it from was a local artist who had “heard something” on the news. I suppose this is how consumer confidence builds and consumer confidence really is a leading indicator of economic and housing recovery. But let’s stay grounded in the numbers.

Mr. Texas brought with him some charts of Arizona house prices, including some strange data about Flagstaff median home prices that none of the Flagstaff experts in the room recognized or agreed with. His Phoenix numbers may have been about right. Those numbers predicted a turn-around in home prices and significant uptick in the volume of sales in the 3d quarter of 2012. A good part of the driving force for that possible turnaround is the (probably correct) assumption that mortgage rates are going to remain low and start to rise slightly later in the year. There is also an assumption that the general employment picture will gradually get better (though Mr. Texas didn’t tell us how that magic was going to happen – that’s, after all, a political question).

If Phoenix does begin to make a come-back in the Fall of 2012, that would be consistent with other predictions that Flagstaff will be among the first in the nation to begin to recover, starting in 2013. Why not Flagstaff first? A big chunk of our housing market consists of second homes of folks in Phoenix. Until they feel that their primary homes’ equity justifies owning a second home, they won’t be buying one. Flagstaff lagged Phoenix on the downturn and I believe will lag Phoenix on the upturn. So, on the optimistic side, look for Flagstaff median home prices to begin to rise in 2013. But if you’re a buyer, don’t bet on Flagstaff home prices falling in 2012. With mortgage rates never lower, you’ll lose the bet whichever way the home price goes, or even if it stays the same.

To buy or sell any Flagstaff home, please contact me: Ann Heitland at RE/MAX Peak Properties.

To search the Flagstaff MLS, click here!

I was at a lunch presentation at Flagstaff’s High Country Conference Center today when this startling graph from CNBC popped onto the presenter’s screen (compliments of Erin Moore of Prime Lending). This reminded me to remind you that mortgage rates have never been lower. This -- combined with home price reductions we’ve seen in the last few years -- means that the median-priced Flagstaff home is more affordable to the typical home buyer than it is has been in decades.

What the graphic shows is that yield on U.S. Treasury Notes – the 10-year term variety – have never been lower in the history of the U.S. Treasury’s history except in 1945 when Europe was coming out of a devastating war. Similarly, Europe is now teetering on the brink of a collapse like the one Lehman Brothers brought onto the U.S. in 2008. So, U.S. debt is the safest place in the world for investors and they are buying U.S. Notes at such a pace that, even with the recovering economy here, interest rates are being driven down.

The 30-year fixed rate mortgage most closely tracks the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rate. So, what’s good for the U.S. Treasury and bad for Europe is good for home buyers.

Get started to buy any Flagstaff home by contacting me: Ann Heitland at RE/MAX Peak Properties.

To search the Flagstaff MLS, click here!